Market Overview
The Australia grain production market size reached 69.4 million tons in 2025. Looking forward, the market is expected to reach 94.3 million tons by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.36% during 2026–2034. Favorable climate conditions, advancements in agricultural technology, high global demand for grains, government policies supporting the sector, and rising innovations in farming practices and efficient supply chain management are the primary forces propelling market growth. Australian grain and oilseed production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to rise by 5.2 million tonnes year-on-year, reaching 64.2 million tonnes, underpinned by above-average rainfall across key producing states — notably Western Australia, which may record its second-largest crop on record, and northern New South Wales. Australia is one of the world's most significant grain exporters, with wheat, barley, and canola collectively forming the backbone of both domestic food supply and international trade. Wheat, barley, and canola remain the three largest crops, with the local value of production sold combining to AUD 18.7 billion and representing 83% of total winter crop local value in 2024–25. Western Australia is the nation's dominant grain-producing state and export origination point, while New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria collectively account for the majority of the remaining harvest volume. Australia is perennially the world's largest exporter and among the top three producers of barley, with projected exports of 8.3 million tonnes in 2025–26, and wheat exports for the 2025–26 season are forecast at 27 million tonnes — well above the ten-year average of 19.7 million tonnes.
How AI is Reshaping the Future of the Australia Grain Production Market
Precision agriculture technologies including drones, satellite data, GPS-enabled equipment, and soil sensors are being adopted at scale across Western Australia's Wheatbelt and New South Wales's cropping regions, enabling yield consistency, resource optimization, and risk reduction — with AI-driven crop tracking being cited as a critical competitive differentiator for large-scale grain operations.
Data analytics platforms are being utilized to monitor grain quality, soil health, and market trends in real time, allowing farmers to respond to shifting conditions and customer requirements, with the rising digitization of agriculture providing the prospect of boosting productivity while enhancing traceability along the grain supply chain.
In January 2024, AgCulture was announced as the exclusive provider of Farmwave's Harvest Vision yield loss monitor in Australia, with initial trial systems commencing use during the 2023–24 Australian harvest season and producing positive early results, demonstrating how AI-powered vision systems are being embedded directly into harvesting operations to reduce losses and improve per-hectare profitability.
In May 2023, Griffith University collaborated with Korea's KOAT and Earthfix to incorporate advanced smart farming technology capable of boosting productivity up to 75 times more than traditional methods, with AI-enabled controlled environment agriculture positioned as a strategic complement to broadacre cropping for high-value specialty grain and produce.
AI-assisted weather modeling and ENSO prediction tools are increasingly integrated into farm management platforms, enabling growers across Queensland and northern New South Wales to optimize planting timing and input decisions weeks earlier than conventional soil and weather observation methods would allow.
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Market Trends and Insights
Record Western Australia Harvest 2025–26: The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia called the record 2025–26 harvest at 27.35 million tonnes — WA's fourth record crop in five years — fueled by exceptionally good yields in three of five port zones, with adequate July–August rainfall and mild temperatures during grain-fill driving water use efficiency to very high levels.
Barley Area Expansion Reshaping Rotation Patterns: Barley profitability exceeded wheat in many areas in 2025, and on the back of this an expansion in barley area is likely for the 2026 growing season, with barley area in Western Australia up 26.4% from its 2022 base, reflecting a structural rotation shift driven by relative price signals and yield performance.
South Australia Wheat Surges to Nine-Year High: South Australian wheat production is estimated to increase by 71% in 2025–26 to 4.7 million tonnes, with barley production up 65% to 2.1 million tonnes and lentil production reaching a new record of 989 thousand tonnes, marking the state's strongest winter crop performance in nearly a decade.
Global Oversupply Capping Australian Grain Prices: Australian grain exports face intense competition as global production remains high, especially for wheat and barley, with large harvests in Russia, the EU, and the United States weighing on global markets, while carryover stocks continue to build in major exporting nations including Australia and Canada.
Canola Exports Supported by Chinese Demand Recovery: Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving local prospects for genetically modified canola production, while demand for stock replenishment and a year-on-year decline in sunflower supply are expected to support non-GM canola prices.
From a grain type and end-use perspective, wheat retains its position as Australia's dominant crop by both volume and value, comprising 57% of total winter crop production sold with 34.8 million tonnes in 2024–25 — the highest for all winter crops, and serving food, feed, and export end-uses simultaneously. Barley is the fastest-growing grain type by planted area, driven by its superior financial returns in 2025 and its dual role as a malting and feed grain for both domestic livestock industries and export markets in China, Japan, and the Middle East. Canola has consolidated its position as the most profitable crop per hectare for many growers, with Western Australia remaining the largest canola producing state with 3.0 million tonnes sold, accounting for 44% of total national production, and canola production in Western Australia estimated to increase to 4.3 million tonnes in 2025–26 — the second highest result on record. Pulses, including lentils and chickpeas, are the fastest-growing specialty segment, with Victoria and South Australia both recording new state lentil production records in 2025–26 driven by expanded planted area and favorable spring temperatures. The food end-use segment leads by value, followed by feed — underpinned by a strong domestic livestock sector particularly in New South Wales and Queensland — and industrial use for biofuel and starch-based processing applications.
Regionally, Western Australia accounts for approximately 40–45% of Australia's total grain harvest and dominates export volumes through its CBH-operated port terminals at Kwinana, Albany, Esperance, Geraldton, and Bunbury. New South Wales is the second-largest producing state, though its output is more variable due to the climatic heterogeneity between its northern and southern cropping zones. Winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have increased by 17% to 26.9 million tonnes in 2025–26, representing a new record production, while Victoria's barley production increased an estimated 55% to 3.1 million tonnes following a cool finish that favoured yields. Queensland is a growing pulse and sorghum producer, with its northern regions increasingly benefiting from soil moisture carry-over from successive La Niña events that supported strong early-season crop establishment.
Market Growth Drivers
Strategic Export Demand and Geographic Advantage
The grain production market of Australia is fueled by high global export demand, particularly from fast-growing Asian economies including Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, and increasingly China. Australian grain — in the form of wheat, barley, and canola — is prized internationally for its quality, protein content, and food safety standards, making it a preferred input for food processing and animal feed throughout the region. Robust export forecasts for 2025–26 anticipate wheat exports of 25.5 million tonnes, barley of 8.0 million tonnes, and canola of 5.0 million tonnes, underpinned by historically strong old-crop clearance and forward bookings that signal sustained international buyer confidence. Australia's geographic proximity to Asia provides a determinant logistical benefit, allowing quicker delivery and lower shipping costs relative to Northern Hemisphere competitors, and free trade agreements with key partners further sustain export expansion and price competitiveness.
Innovation and Sustainability in Agricultural Practices
The use of high-tech agricultural technologies and environmentally sound practices is a strong growth enabler in Australia's grain production industry. Producers from major regions like Western Australia's Wheatbelt to New South Wales's cropping regions are using precision agriculture technology including drones, satellite data, GPS-enabled equipment, and soil sensors to enhance yield consistency, resource utilization, and risk reduction. Accompanied by sustainable practices including conservation tillage, integrated pest management, and rotational cropping, Australian producers are maximizing long-term soil fertility while complying with environmental standards. The better-than-expected harvest results in 2025–26 can also be attributed to improved farming practices and advancements in seed varieties, with investment in climate-resilient cultivars by national breeding programs continuing to strengthen the biological foundation of Australia's grain productivity.
Infrastructure Investment and Supply Chain Resilience
A key driver of growth for Australia's grain production industry is ongoing investment in infrastructure that supports efficient supply chains from farm gate to export terminal. In July 2024, Australian agribusiness Commodity Ag moved to export its first cargo from its Albany port terminal facility, boosting export competition in Western Australia against established grain handlers CBH and Bunge, reflecting the ongoing expansion of port infrastructure and the competitive dynamics that are keeping handling charges in check. Improved infrastructure lowers the risk of bottlenecks, minimizes logistical costs, and enhances market responsiveness. Domestic policies likewise focus on safeguarding prime farmland under pressures of urban expansion, while spending on mechanization, automation, and digital farm management tools further reinforces farm-level productivity and supply chain traceability — both increasingly important requirements for premium market access in food-safety-conscious Asian export destinations.
Market Segmentation
Grain Type Insights:
Wheat
Barley
Canola
Pulses
Others
End Use Insights:
Food
Feed
Industrial Use
Regional Insights:
Australia Capital Territory & New South Wales
Victoria & Tasmania
Queensland
Northern Territory & Southern Australia
Western Australia
Recent News and Developments
February 2026 — GIWA Calls Record Western Australia 2025–26 Harvest at 27.35 Million Tonnes: The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia confirmed the record 2025–26 harvest at 27.35 million tonnes — WA's fourth record crop in five years — driven by exceptionally high yields across three of five port zones, with barley area up 26.4% from its 2022 base and canola recording the second-highest production result on record.
March 2026 — ABARES March Crop Report Confirms South Australia and Victoria Production Surges: ABARES confirmed South Australian wheat production increased 71% to 4.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, barley rose 65% to 2.1 million tonnes, and lentil production reached a new state record of 989 thousand tonnes, while Victorian barley production surged 55% to a record 3.1 million tonnes supported by expanded planted area and a cool, yield-favouring finish to the growing season.
November 2025 — USDA FAS Projects Third-Largest Australian Wheat Crop in History at 36 Million Tonnes: The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service projected Australian wheat production at 36 million tonnes for 2025–26 — the third largest in the country's history and 31% above the ten-year average — with wheat exports forecast at 27 million tonnes, well above the ten-year average of 19.7 million tonnes, driven by an 8.5% increase in average yield despite planted area being nearly 3% lower than in 2024–25.
September 2024 — Australian Government Raises 2024 Wheat Harvest Forecast to 31.8 Million Tonnes: The Australian government raised its wheat harvest forecast by 2.7 million tonnes to 31.8 million tonnes following rains in key growing regions, while also revising barley output upward by approximately 700,000 tonnes and canola by 100,000 tonnes, as Australia prepared to boost global supply at a time when international grain prices were near four-year lows.
July 2024 — Commodity Ag Launches First Export Cargo from Albany Port Terminal: Australian agribusiness Commodity Ag announced its intention to export its first cargo from its Albany port terminal facility, boosting export competition in Western Australia against established grain handlers CBH and Bunge, marking a structural shift in the competitive dynamics of WA grain handling and export logistics.
March 2024 — Grains Australia Represents at GPC Pulses 2024 Conference in New Delhi: Grains Australia represented at Pulses 2024, the annual conference of the Global Pulse Confederation in New Delhi, with hundreds of international pulse trade members meeting to discuss industry developments, market outlooks, and bilateral trade opportunities — reinforcing Australia's strategic push to grow its pulse export footprint across Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
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